The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 11

   This series is about why the NFL’s version of Total Offense and Total Defense ranking is a poor excuse for a ranking method. In the past eleven seasons the Offense that led the league in yards gained (NFL version of Total Offense), let the league in Offensive Points Scored only five times. This works out to be only 45.5% percent of the time. Since it is points scored, not yards gained, that determines which team wins every game it would seem apparent that yards gained is not the best barometer in determining which offense should be ranked higher.

   I would agree that there can be no perfect method since there are other factors that affect each team’s performance. One example is Strength of Schedule. Some teams play a schedule against a lot of bad teams while other teams have much tougher competition.

This makes it even more important to have as much information, as is reasonably possible, as you can get when ranking an offense or defense. Pro Football Ranking.com

includes fifteen statistics, while the NFL uses only one.

So far in this series I have included the following nine statistics used in the PFR.com method; Interceptions, Fumbles, Penalties, Red Zone, Time of Possession, 3^rd Down Percentage, 1st downs, sacks, and Quarterback completion Percentage. I will now add two more to this list to bring our total up to eleven statistics.

Rushing Touchdowns and Passing Touchdowns

What good is an offense that can’t score touchdowns, or a defense that gives up a lot of touchdowns?

Offense’s that can’t score touchdowns usually kick a lot of field goals and usually lose a lot of games, while a defense that does not give up a lot of touchdowns usually forces their opponent to kick a lot of field goals and will win a lot of games.

Offense’s that can score rushing TD’s in the red zone are to be feared,  just as great passing attack is a wonder to behold because they can score TD’s from anywhere on the field.

I am not saying that field goals are not important to the game of football, they are,  but they are not included in our ranking method because an offense that relies on field goals is not a good offense. A defense than denies their opponent TD’s is a good defense.

We have all heard the saying;”Knowledge is power”. Well doesn’t knowledge require information? The NFL’s one stat version of Total Offense and Total Defense does not give much information whereas Pro FootballRanking.com’s fifteen stat method gives you a lot of information!

We have now included eleven statistics used in our ranking method and you may have noticed that the “yards” statistic has not been included. Never fear we have now reached the point I saved for last. In my next two posts we will add the yards statistics to our all inclusive method of Ranking Total Offense and Total Defense.

Next up in Part 12 will be Rushing Yards per game and Rushing Yards Average (per attempt).

Well are you convinced yet? Please leave a comment so we can get a discussion going.

The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 10

   In this continuing series on why the NFL’s version of ranking teams on offense and defense is a flawed and meaningless method I have been building the  Pro Football Ranking.com comprehensive Total Offense and Total Defense ranking method, statistic by statistic. If you have been following my posts you will already know that I have discussed Interceptions, Fumbles, Penalties, Time of Possession, Red Zone, 3^rd Down Conversion Percentage and, 1^st Downs. In my last post I started on the Passing stat’s used in this analytical ranking method by adding Sacks. Today I will continue with another important passing statistic;

Quarterback Completion Percentage

  You are always reading and hearing about the QB rating stat, but who really understands this confusing and misleading stat. In fact there seem to be more than one QB rating stat.  

How confusing is that?

   Quarterback Completion Percentage, on the other hand, is very simple. It is nothing more than the pass completions per attempts. A high pass completion percentage usually means your teams offense can keep drives going. A low QB completion percentage is what all defense’s want. Incomplete passes on 1^st down puts pressure on the offense and makes it harder to pick up 1^st downs. An incomplete pass on 3^rd down means the defense has done their job, stopped the offense, and can get off the field.

   The more details, information, you can get on any subject means you will be more knowledgeable on that subject. This applies to Total Offense and Total Defense as much as any other subject!

   If I am driving across the country starting in Boston and going to Oakland and I tell you that I have traveled 800 miles, you know I have traveled 800 miles. You do not know how fast I was driving, how long it took to go that 800 miles, or when I will get to Oakland. If I tell you that I driving 800 miles a day and the driving distance between Boston and Oakland is 3100 miles you can figure out that I will be in Oakland on the fourth day. The more information you get the more accurate you can be.

I started this post with the statement that “the NFL’s version of ranking teams on offense and defense is a flawed and meaningless method”. Flawed because you are getting a very limited amount of information and meaningless because it tells you very little about how your offense or defense is playing.

Don’t you really want more information? Try Pro Football Ranking.com!

   So far we have covered nine different stats used in our ranking method. This leaves Yards and points to be discussed. I will start with points (TD’s) in my next post. Part 11

How am I doing, are you convinced yet. Leave a comment.

The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 9

   The NFL’s version of Total Offense and Total Defense is Yards gained and Yards allowed only. In this continuing series I am attempting to show readers that yards only does not tell the whole picture. The Pro Football Ranking.com’s comprehensive method of Total Offense and Total Defense Ranking uses fifteen stats, not just one. In this series I have discussed Turn Over’s (Fumbles and Interceptions), Penalties, The Red Zone, Time of Possession, Third Down conversion Percentage, First Downs and why they should be considered to truly determine Total Offense and Total Defense ranking.

   Since the NFL is considered to be a passing league PFR.com uses six passing statistics in their ranking system.  Interceptions have already been covered in Part 3 of this series on Turn Over’s. This post will add the next passing stat to our ranking method.

Sacks

   Sacks, everybody likes to talk about sacks! They are one of the biggest game changers in football along with being very exciting.

   Offense’s that allow a lot of sacks usually have a very long season. Offense’s that do not allow a lot of sacks are usually very successful.  Peyton Manning is a great example

(pick a team). He gets rid of the ball fast to avoid sacks and pressures. A Peyton Manning passing attack is always among the league leaders in passing statistics including (fewest) sacks.

   A defense the gets a lot of sacks also gets a lot of Quarterback pressures. Even Peyton Manning can’t complete a lot of passes if he gets sacked or is running around the backfield to avoid being sacked. A defense that gets a lot of sacks will usually get a lot of pressure on the QB which makes it difficult to put together long drives, score points, and win games.

   Offense’s can even put nice drives together, gain a lot of yards but be stopped in their tracks by a perfectly timed sack. We see this happen every Sunday!

   I don’t understand why the NFL uses just yards gained\allowed to rank offenses and defenses. Sacks seem to be to important to be forgotten about!

In my next post, Part 10, I will discuss another passing statistic that is used in the Pro Football Ranking.com Total Offense and Total Defense ranking method;

Quarterback Completion Percentage

How am I doing? Do you think that the NFL Total Offense\Defense ranking method is needs to be replaced by a more comprehensive ranking method?

Leave your comments.

The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 8

   This post continues to build on the statistics used in Pro Football Ranking.com’s fifteen stat ranking method. We have already talked about Interceptions, Fumbles, Penalties, The Red Zone, Time of Possession, and Third Down Conversion Percentage. Today I will add statistic number seven to this list.

 I would like to point out that all of the statistics used in this ranking method are valued equally; I am presenting them randomly, not in any order of importance. Since the NFL version of Ranking Total Offense and Total Defense is yards only I am saving the Yards stats for last. My Intention is to show that there are other statistics, besides yards, that are important.

1^st Downs

   I apologize if I repeat myself, but this seems so obvious that I can’t understand how it can be ignored. This is another NO Brainer!

   Offenses that can’t pick up first downs are simply no good! Offenses that pick up first downs a large percentage of the time are very good! Which would you rather have an offense that goes three and out often or an offense that can put drives together? If it is the second choice then 1^st downs are very important.

   A defense that allows the opposing offenses to rack up a lot of 1^st downs is a bad defense! The defense has to be on the field for a long time and gets tired which leads to nothing good. On the other hand a defense that ranks high in this category, one which allows few first downs, gets to rest and watch their offense work. This usually leads to everything that is good for your team.

   A no brainer, you bet! I want my team to rank high in this stat both on offense and defense!

And Still

The NFL, in all of their wisdom, thinks that the “yards stat” is the only important statistic to use in ranking Total Offense and Total Defense.

We at Pro Football Ranking.com don’t agree with the NFL one stat version! Do you?

Next up in Part 9 will be Sacks.

Leave a comment, how do you feel about Total Offense and Total Defense rankings.

The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 7

   Today I will continue to build on our comprehensive Total Offense and Total Defense ranking method. In each post of this series I am adding one statistic that I think should be considered if you want to correctly rank each NFL Teams Offense and Defense. I have already included Fumbles, Interceptions, Penalties, Time of Possession, and The Red Zone, and I have talked about Yards gained\allowed and Points  Scored\allowed. I have not included these last two into our ranking method as of this time I will add them later.

Third Down Conversion Percentage

   This is another no brainer!

An Offense that scores high in this statistic stays on the field. If your team is successful on third down your offense can continue to drive down the field, take time off the clock, wear down opposing defenses, gain yards, and score points. Isn’t that what an offense is supposed to do?

An offense that goes three and out a lot will score low in this category, will simply not do any of the above, in other words they will suck.

   A defense that ranks high in 3^rd Down Percentage will be a good defense. They will not give up a lot of yards or points. Just as a defense that ranks low in 3^rd down percentage will always be a bad defense.

   I don’t understand how the NFL can ignore this statistic. A bad defense that plays an easy schedule, against offenses that have a lot of penalties, for example, might not give up a lot of yards and make the playoffs but against good teams they will be embarrassed.

   I believe that 3^rd down conversion percentage might be the single most telling statistic there is, even more so then the yards gained\allowed statistic. If your offense scores in the mid to high forties in 3^rd down conversion percentage, you have a playoff caliber offense! If your defense scores in the mid to low 30’s in 3^rd down conversion percentage you have a playoff caliber defense.

   The NFL may ignore this statistic but Pro FootballRanking.com does not! It is one of the fifteen stats used in our ranking method.

   In my next post, Part 8, I will continue to build on this comprehensive ranking method by adding the 1^st Downs to our list of stats.

OK, by know you should either be onboard with me or maybe think I am wrong.

Either way leave a comment.

The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 6

   In today’s post on why the NFL’s version of Total Offense and Total Defense is a bad way of ranking NFL Offenses and Defenses I will add another statistic to consider. I have already talked about why the yards only statistic does not tell the whole picture in post 2 of this series. In part 3, I started to build my method of ranking.  I started by including Fumbles and Interceptions. In part 4, I added Penalties and in part 5, I included the Red Zone statistics.

Time of Possession

   If your team’s offense is on the field your team’s offense can score points and the opposing team’s offense can not score points. The longer your team has the ball the better it is because it leaves less time for your opponent. The longer your offense has the ball affects a whole range of other statistics such as the number of 1^st downs you have, yards gained, 3^rd down percentage, and more.  Teams that control the clock on offense tend to be playoff teams.

   A defense that is on the field for a long tends to give up a lot of points. A defense that can get off the field quickly stays fresh. A defense that can not get off the field becomes tired. A tired defense is easy to score against.

   This is one statistic where the offenses performance can help the defense. An offense that controls the ball for a large percentage of the game helps keep their defense rested. A defense that can get off the field quickly allows more opportunities for their offense to score.

I can’t understand how the NFL can disregard TOP (Time of Possession) in their Total Offense and Total Defense ranking method! In fact, I don’t understand how you can call the NFL’s one stat version of Total Offense and Total Defense a ranking method at all!

   Time of Possession is very important statistic and should be included in any comprehensive method of ranking a NFL team’s Offense or Defense. It, of course, is included in the Pro Football Ranking.com. method of Total Offense and Total Defense Ranking.

In my next post, Part 7, I will continue to build our comprehensive method of Total Offense and Total Defense Ranking by adding the next statistic.   3^rd Down Percentage

Please feel free to comment!

The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 5

   In this series on why the NFL’s Total Offense (Yards Gained) and Total Defense (Yards Allowed) statistics are totally wrong to use as a ranking method I have discussed Yards vs Points, Interceptions and Fumbles, Penalties, and why they should be considered in a ranking system. Today I want to continue to build our ranking method by adding another statistic that is important in determining how an offense and defense actually should be ranked.

The Red Zone

   There are a lot of teams that move the ball down the field, gain a lot of yards, but when they get into the Red Zone they falter. They can’t score Touchdowns. What good is it to move the ball down the field just to be stopped cold in the Red Zone? The have to settle for a field goal or worse they get pushed back out of field goal range and punt. A team that can’t score touchdowns is usually not very good! A team that scores touchdowns most of the time in the red zone usually is pretty good!

   On the defensive side, a team that is stingy in the red zone is what we all want. Who cares if they give up a lot of yards just as long as they stop the opposing offense from scoring touchdowns? I would rather that my defense prevented them from getting to the red zone at all, but I am happy when they force a field goal attempt. A defense that does not allow touchdowns in the red zone is probably going to the playoffs.

   Once again I am forced to say that the NFL does not consider this important statistic when determining Total Offense and Total Defense rankings. Remember the only statistic they consider important is Yards Gained and Yards Allowed.

   Just how can one statistic tell you how good your offense or defense actually is, how they should be ranked? Well it can’t!

   The red zone statistic is one of the fifteen statistics used in Pro Football Ranking.com’s ranking method.  While yards gained\allowed is important it is just one of the stat’s that is important.

   We at Pro Football Ranking.com think there is more than just the yards stat to be considered when determining how a team should be ranked on offense and defense, the RED Zone is important, which is why it is one of fifteen offensive and defensive stats in our ranking method.

In my next post, Part 6, I will talk about Time of Possession.

Which ranking method do you think is better? Leave a comment and tell the world.