The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 11

   This series is about why the NFL’s version of Total Offense and Total Defense ranking is a poor excuse for a ranking method. In the past eleven seasons the Offense that led the league in yards gained (NFL version of Total Offense), let the league in Offensive Points Scored only five times. This works out to be only 45.5% percent of the time. Since it is points scored, not yards gained, that determines which team wins every game it would seem apparent that yards gained is not the best barometer in determining which offense should be ranked higher.

   I would agree that there can be no perfect method since there are other factors that affect each team’s performance. One example is Strength of Schedule. Some teams play a schedule against a lot of bad teams while other teams have much tougher competition.

This makes it even more important to have as much information, as is reasonably possible, as you can get when ranking an offense or defense. Pro Football Ranking.com

includes fifteen statistics, while the NFL uses only one.

So far in this series I have included the following nine statistics used in the PFR.com method; Interceptions, Fumbles, Penalties, Red Zone, Time of Possession, 3^rd Down Percentage, 1st downs, sacks, and Quarterback completion Percentage. I will now add two more to this list to bring our total up to eleven statistics.

Rushing Touchdowns and Passing Touchdowns

What good is an offense that can’t score touchdowns, or a defense that gives up a lot of touchdowns?

Offense’s that can’t score touchdowns usually kick a lot of field goals and usually lose a lot of games, while a defense that does not give up a lot of touchdowns usually forces their opponent to kick a lot of field goals and will win a lot of games.

Offense’s that can score rushing TD’s in the red zone are to be feared,  just as great passing attack is a wonder to behold because they can score TD’s from anywhere on the field.

I am not saying that field goals are not important to the game of football, they are,  but they are not included in our ranking method because an offense that relies on field goals is not a good offense. A defense than denies their opponent TD’s is a good defense.

We have all heard the saying;”Knowledge is power”. Well doesn’t knowledge require information? The NFL’s one stat version of Total Offense and Total Defense does not give much information whereas Pro FootballRanking.com’s fifteen stat method gives you a lot of information!

We have now included eleven statistics used in our ranking method and you may have noticed that the “yards” statistic has not been included. Never fear we have now reached the point I saved for last. In my next two posts we will add the yards statistics to our all inclusive method of Ranking Total Offense and Total Defense.

Next up in Part 12 will be Rushing Yards per game and Rushing Yards Average (per attempt).

Well are you convinced yet? Please leave a comment so we can get a discussion going.