NFL Weekly Game Picks and Picks against the Experts

   The weekly game picks page is our fun page. This is where my friend Dave Sturm of Hamburg, NY and I try to beat the PFR.com Total Score method in picking game winners each week. Dave is an advisor to Pro Football Ranking.com as well as a contributor to our NFL Blog and is the sole writer of the Buffalo Bills Blog.

Weekly NFL Game Picks

   Starting with week two of the NFL regular season and continuing through the playoffs, Dave and I will pick every game every week. The Pro Football Ranking.com Total Score method also will pick every game unless the Total Scores are within twenty points of each other in which case it sees the games as being to close to call. The PFR.com Total Score Method is simply the team with he better (Lowest Total Score) Total Score is the team picked to win.

   On the bottom of each weeks page is the results of our game picks. First are the results from the present week. Below the present week’s results is how we did the week before.

Last is the Season Totals where the results for the whole season are given.

Against the Experts

   Dave and I are blue collar people. I am retired from the Telecommunications industry while Dave is still employed in the same line of work. We do not claim to be experts but like many of you we follow the NFL we think we are as good as the proclaimed experts.

   The Experts are going to be “The Experts from ESPN”. These are people who make a living talking and writing about the NFL on a daily basis. Their names will be listed as soon as they are published, probably just before game one.

   Since the number of games picked will be different, the win\Loss records will not total up as the same number of games. Therefore the Win\Loss\Tie percentages will be how we determine the winners.

In my next post will be the NFL and Team Blogs on RFR.com.

   Can a couple of Blue Collar guys pick as good as or better than the experts?   Will the Pro Football Ranking method be any good at picking game winners? Check back weekly during the season to find out.

I hope you are enjoying these posts and have taken a look at our website. Please leave your comments.

NFL Weekly Schedule with Game Matchups

NFL schedules abound seemingly everywhere on the internet. They all will tell you which teams are playing and some other useful information, but not much. Wouldn’t it be nice to have schedules that really gave you all the important information? Well look no farther that the Pro Football Ranking.com Schedule page which includes all the important information in their game matchups.

The Schedule with Game Matchups

   The PFR.com Schedule page lists all the games weekly and gives you each team’s record. This is not a lot different then you can find most anywhere. The difference comes when you click on the game matchup buttons. Each game has its own page filled with all sorts of information in an easy to read format.

The Game Matchup Pages

The Score Card

   The first thing you will see is the names of the away team and the home team on the top of the page. This is nothing new but then comes something you won’t find anywhere else.

You will see what we call our Score Card. The Score Card gives you the Home and Away schedule for the entire season for that team. You will see the win\Loss\ and Tie record under the team’s name. On the bottom of each score card you will find the; Strength of Schedule for games played so far, Turn Over stats, and the PFR.com Total score. The most interesting part of the score card is the Offense and Defense Score for each week of the season. This is the score from the Division Statistics Page, where the fifteen stats used for the NFL ranking are found, which is used for Team Rankings on the TeamRanking Page. The weekly Offense and Defense scores allow you to see how your offense and defense have preformed each week and are trending. If the offense score, for example, is getting smaller each week your offense is playing better. If the offense score is getting larger as the season progresses then your offense is getting worse. A quick look at your opponents score card will tell you how their offense or defense is trending. This kind of information can’t be found anywhere else with out a lot of time consuming work.

Weekly Worksheet

   Just under the score cards for each team is the Weekly Worksheet. This is where the fifteen statistics used on the Division Statistics page for Offense and Defense is displayed.  Included with the offense and defense statistics is the Rushing and Passing attempts per game with the NFL Rank for each and the percentage of Rushing and Passing plays per game. You will also find the PFR.com Offense and Defense Rank on the worksheet.

   On one page you get he following information; Team win\Loss record, Strength of Schedule, Turn Over Stats, the PFR.com Total Score, a weekly record of how your offense and defense are trending for the entire NFL season, fifteen offensive and fifteen defensive statistics with the NFL ranking for each, and the PFR.com Offensive and defensive rankings. This is all in a quick and easy to understand format and all on one page for both teams. You can easily compare all of this information for each team to see just how your offense stacks up against your opponent’s defense or if their defense is trending better or worse as the season progresses.

   You get up Sunday morning and want information on your favorite team’s game. Do you really want to do all the research needed or are you like most of us and just won’t spend the time to find out? Well you don’t need to anything except come to the Pro football Ranking.com Schedule Page, click on the Game Button for your game, and you get all the information you want. We have done all the work for you!  How easy is that?

Next up is the NFL Weekly Game Picks, us against the so called experts.

   If you can find a better NFL schedule, please leave your comments and let me know because I don’t think there is a better schedule anywhere.

Points Scored\Allowed vs Yards Gained\Allowed Rankings on Pro Football Ranking.com.

    The NFL’s versions of Total Offense and Total Defense are the Yards Gained and Yards Allowed statistics. While these are nice and useful statistics they certainly don’t tell anything about the outcome of the games played. You have never heard of a game outcome being reported as Green Bay 457 yards to Minnesota 362 yards. Points scored and points allowed determine who wins each and every game. I am of course talking about Team Points Scored and allowed, which include; Kickoffs returned for Touchdowns, Punts returned for Touchdown, Fumbles and Interceptions returned for touchdowns. These are nice and always exciting but what do they tell you about how your offense or defense are playing? The answer to this question is they don’t tell you much!

   Pro FootballRanking.com does some things you won’t find anywhere else on the internet that I can find. In this post I am going to talk about Offensive (only) points scored and Defensive (only) points allowed.

   Offensive points scored are exactly what it sounds like, points that the offense scores. Defensive points allowed are points the defense allows. This is not the Team Points statistic you find everywhere else.

Special Teams touchdowns, Fumbles and Interceptions returned for scores are not included. Since I consider PAT’s to be special teams they are not included, at least for now, but with the rule changes this year PAT’s might be included in the future.

 The only scoring we use are offensive TD’s and Field Goals, points actually scored by the offense. On defense we only include TD’s and Field Goals actually scored by the opposing offense. This is different then what you find anywhere else because this website is about Total Offense and Total Defense Ranking.

   This brings us to a total of four ranking methods updated weekly on our website; PFR.com’s True Total Offense and Defense, The NFL’s traditional Yards only method, Offensive Points scored and Defensive points allowed method, and the PFR.com Total Score Method.

   Three of these ranking methods are presented to you on one web page in a side by side comparison on our Points vs Yards Ranking page. Where else can you go to find each NFL team rankings, side by side, for three different ranking methods?  If you already clicked on the link to the Points vs Yards page you will have noticed that we have added a fourth ranking method, the Average’s Method. This method is the average ranking of the other three methods.

   This makes a total of four ways to see how your offense and defense are doing on one page. It doesn’t matter which method you prefer, a quick look gives you a lot of information in an easy to understand format all in one place. You won’t find this anywhere else. Remember there is a fifth ranking method, on the TotalScore NFL Team Rankings Page, for those of you that want to see an overall ranking of your team’s offense and defense.

Five different ranking methods for offense and defense on one website

    If you want to know how your team stacks up against the rest of the NFL. The answers are at Pro Football Ranking.com.

Up next is our one of a kind NFL Weekly Schedule.

I hope you have taken a good look and like what you see, remember to check out the past years archived. Please leave your comments.

NFL Team Ranking "The Total Score Method"

   Pro Football Ranking.com is a website devoted to NFL Total Offense and Total Defense Ranking only. This is an area of concern for many people, year after year, since in the past the only ranking has been the NFL version which is yards only. While this is an important statistic, it does not tell you very much about how your team is actually playing. This is demonstrated by the continued use of the term; “Bend But don’t break” which refers to a defense that gives up a lot of yards but not a lot of points. Another thing we hear a lot about is; “They move the ball well between the 20’s but can’t score“. This is why yards only may not be a good barometer of how your team is playing.

   In my previous 14 posts we discussed this problem and its solution. We built the PFR.com Total Offense and Total Defense Ranking method and looked at how easy it is to understand and follow on a weekly basis. If you have not read about this method, now would be a good time, you can find them all by following me on Twitter and here on Blogspot.com. You can find the links to these blogs also on the Pro Football Ranking.com home page.

   Today I would like to add another dimension to this ranking method.

Total Score NFL Team Ranking

   Pro Football Ranking.com is the only place on the web that has anything like this ranking method. Total Score Team Ranking is an extension of the PFR.com “NFL Offense and Defense Team Ranking” method. This ranking method simply is the sum of the Offense and Defense scores found on the Team ranking page and of course on the Division statistics Page. Since winning games requires both offense and defense by combining these scores it gives you way to see how your team is doing overall, minus special teams.

   Is your team a playoff caliber team? How do you know? In the past you looked at the win\Loss records, while this is nice because it will tell you if you are going to be in the playoffs, does it really tell you if your team can win in the playoffs? The answer is not really.

The PFR.com Total Score method is a very good way to see if your team is a playoff caliber team. Take a look at the past years Total Score Archive and you will see that this method is very good at predicting playoff teams.

   The Total Score Ranking method is fun to use when predicting weekly game winners. It is used on the Weekly Game Picks section on PFR.com. I will talk about this in a later post.

I said earlier that PFR.com is all about NFL Offense and Defense Ranking. I have now mentioned two ranking methods that are exclusive PFR.com and remember that we also use the NFL’s Yards only ranking method, shown on the Team Ranking page. That makes a total of three ranking methods used on this website, and I am not done yet.

   In my next post I will add two more ways to rank NFL offenses and defenses. Remember the all important, Points! If you think you can get this information just anywhere you need to read my next post!

  I hope you have read enough about Pro Football Ranking.com to peek your interest and maybe you have taken a good look. Let us know what you think by leaving a comment.

NFL Team Ranking and Division Statistics

   In my previous posts on “The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense” parts 1 – 13, I discussed the NFL’s one statistic method which uses only the total yards gained and yards allowed statistics. While this is easy to follow and understand it does not give you a very clear picture of how your offense or defense is actually playing. There needs to be a better method which is why I created the Pro Football Ranking.com True Total Offense and Defense ranking method. I discussed the fifteen different statistics used in this method and explained why I thought they are important for any all inclusive method of ranking.

   You might think that one statistic is easy to follow each week but fifteen different statistics would be hard and confusing to follow every week for all thirty two NFL teams. In this post I intend to show you how easy it actually is, I have done all the work for you. One quick look at our ranking chart is all you need to do.Please click on the link below to see the actual ranking chart for the end of the 2014 regular season.

  

 2014 Team Ranking Chart

   In the chart above the Offense is on the left and the Defense is on the right. The teams are listed according to how they rank form best to worst. The score is the Pro Football Ranking.com offense and defense score derived from the fifteen statistics used in our method. The NFL Yards only ranking is shown in the box. How simple is that! Just go to our NFL Offense and Defense Ranking page to see where your team ranks each week during the regular season.

   You can easily find out what these numbers mean and how we determined them by going to the Division Statistic page. This page also has a glossary of the abbreviations used and a description of what they mean. If you are an avid NFL fan you will want to come here every week. Just click on the division button of your choice and the fifteen offense and defense statistics used in our ranking method for each team in that NFL division are displayed.

   Included on the Division pages are the fifteen statistical categories, the average or season total and NFL rank for each statistic. Ranking number 1 is better then ranking 32^nd. The score, the sum of the ranking for each statistic, is used on the ranking chart. The lower score is the better score.Please click on the link below to see the actual season ending 2014 Division chart for the AFC West.

2014 Division Chart

    The chart above is the 2014 regular season final for the AFC West. You will also find some extra information on this chart. The average per game rushing and passing attempts and rank for each are shown just for more information only. Denver, for example, Rushed the ball 27.7 times a game or 42.2% of the time with a rushing attempts rank of 12th (12th most rushes per game) in the NFL.

   Once you are familiar with the PFR.com ranking method I hope you will agree that it is far superior to the NFL’s Traditional method of using only the yards statistic for ranking Total Offense and Total Defense. Where else can you get all this information so quickly and in a format that is easy to understand and follow each and every week of the NFL regular season?

In my next post I will discuss another ranking method found only on Pro Football Ranking.com.

Please leave your comments.

Thr Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 13

   We are finally coming to the end of our discussion on The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense. In my previous twelve posts I have been building the ProFootball Ranking.com method of True Total Offense and Total Defense ranking. I have tried to explain why the NFL’s version is incomplete and leaves a lot on important information out whereas the Pro Football Ranking.com method is all inclusive.

   So far we have built a ranking method that includes Interceptions, Fumbles, 1^st Downs, 3^rd Down conversion Percentage, Time of Possession, Red Zone TD scoring Percentage, Sacks, QB completion Percentage, Rushing Yards per game, Rushing Yards per attempt, and Rushing TD’s scored. Today I will add the final two pieces to complete our fifteen statistic ranking method.

Passing Yards per Game and Passing Yards per Attempt

   A great passing offense is certainly fun to watch. It is very exciting to watch your favorite team complete passes for long yardage and score from anywhere on the field. It is hard to stop a very good passing team from gaining a lot of yards per game and scoring a lot of TD’s. Very good passing teams can pick up yardage in large chunks and usually will rank highly in Yards per Attempt.

   A defense that can stop the passing attack is very important. If they can shut down the long ball they will usually rank high in these two important statistics. Shutting down the passing game usually leads to your opponent going three and out often, scoring few points, and keeps their defense on the field.

   All teams are not great passing teams, some are great rushing teams. Very good passing teams gain a lot of yards per game, very good rushing teams will not! This is why the passing yards statistics and rushing statistics must be accounted for separately in any all inclusive ranking method

   This concludes my series on the Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense.

I have demonstrated why the NFL’s one Statistic (yards only) is a poor ranking method because it does not tell you very much about how your teams offense or defense is actually performing. I have explained the fifteen statistics used in the Pro Football Ranking Method and have demonstrated why they are important.

In some of my earlier posts I mentioned Phil Simms in what might seem to be a critical fashion. Once again I would like to say that I have the highest respect for him. I may not always agree whim him but I do know that he is a very intelligent person and a very excellent announcer. When he talks about the games you know he is very knowledgeable.

But!!!

Please get it right about Total Offense and Total Defense Ranking! Don’t say that this team is number one in total offense or defense without explaining you are only talking about yards gained or yards allowed. Some people believe that Points Scored is a better ranking method. I believe that the Pro Football Ranking.com is the best method.

In any event please try not to mislead your followers!

   In my next post I will talk about how the Pro Football Ranking.com method of Total Offense andTotal Defense Ranking is presented in an easy to understand format.

Please leave your comments on this series of posts.

The Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense - Part 12

   Well I am getting close to ending this series on the Myth about the NFL Total Offense and Total Defense. By now we should all know exactly what that is, of course, the dreaded yards only statistic. I don’t mean to imply that yards gained or yards allowed are not important. They are important, but they do not tell the full story, which is why I have devised an all inclusive method of Total Offense and Total Defense Ranking.

   Pro Football Ranking.com’s method includes fifteen statistics, thirteen of these statistics are ignored by the NFL’s version (yards only method). We have included the following eleven statistics so far in building our comprehensive method of ranking NFL offense’s and defense’s; Interceptions, Fumbles, Penalties, 1^st Downs, 3^rd Down Conversions, Time of Possession, Red Zone, QB Completion Percentage, sacks, Rushing TD’s Scored, and Passing TD’s Scored. I am not done yet! In today’s post I will add two more statistics to this all inclusive list.

Rushing Yards Gained and Rushing Yards Average

   A great rushing offense may not seem glamorous. It will not put up a whole lot of points and, is not as exiting as a great passing game. It won’t gain nearly as many yards as a dynamic passing attack. It will keep the other teams offense off the field of play, take a lot time off the clock, and keep their defense rested allowing them to be fresh late in the game. A good rushing team usually will be good in the Red Zone and this means they will be good in scoring rushing TD’s. I want my team to lead the league in total rushing yards for all of the above reasons. A really good rushing team will win a whole lot of games!

   A really good rushing team needs to be able to gain around five yards on first down, to break longer runs often, and pick up third and short or score that Red Zone TD. A running back like Jamaal Charles who has a career per attempt rushing average of 5+ yards is a perfect example. Without a very good yards per attempt statistic you probably won’t have good Total rushing statistics!

   These rushing statistics are just as important to the defense, but for opposite reasons.

A defense that can stop that 1^st down rush for very short yardage will make the opposing offense one dimensional. This usually leads to a lot of Three and outs and lots of sacks. A defense that ranks high in yards allowed per attempt will rank high in total rushing yards allowed.

   The Rushing Yards Gained and Yards per Attempt statistics are important in their own right and should not be lumped in with the Passing statistics which is why at ProFootball Ranking.com we treat these statistics independently from the passing statistics. The NFL doesn’t agree!

   We have now covered 13 of the 15 statistics used in our ranking method. Next up in Part 13 will be the Passing Yards Per Game and Yards Per Attempt statistics.

How do you feel about Total Offense and Total Defense Ranking? Leave a comment and let me know

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